A large amount of change in the healthcare market is anticipated with the election of Donald Trump. The degree to which changes to the Affordable Care Act and its funding mechanisms will have on transaction activity is yet to be seen. Some experts believe that continued enforcement of antitrust statues is likely to continue. Others believe that the unchanged course of existing regulation is unlikely to have a major effect on future transactions. In fact, some pressures may yet be alleviated and will stimulate deals especially in the middle-market space. Many health systems, private equity groups, and other investors continue to aggressively pursue medical group and ancillary facility transactions. This trend also extends to transitional care, home health, and assisted living.
A Trump Presidency
Trump has made few indications about the pace of change to come. Defunding of some health programs will likely affect delivery systems and reimbursement. However, the perception about a more business-friendly and regulation-friendly administration has caused some investors to become more optimistic about deal activity.
Conversely, hospital M&A has started to slow down and its uncertain whether this trend will turn around. The Federal Trade Commission has been recently challenging two large Chicago-area health systems in an aggressive way, Advocate Health Care and NorthShore University HealthSystem. This will likely continue. High profile payor mergers also dominate the landscape (ie Anthem Cigna).